Background: Some Interesting Work on the Effects of the Sendai Earthquake

One thing constantly drummed into my head from childhood was the adage

Amateurs think strategy.

Professionals think logistics.

Continue reading “Background: Some Interesting Work on the Effects of the Sendai Earthquake”

Background: The Japanese Will Come Back, With Some Questions.

Japan is in the news pretty much all the time, and for the wrong reasons.  Instead of focusing on the incredible scale and sadness of the disaster — as some have done — the 24-hour media has self-pleasured itself into a frenzy on the associated emergency at Fukishima Daiichi reactors.  Egged on by the loud “newscasters” (why do they have to be so bloody loud?) people as far away as California have been stocking up on iodine pills and —get this — iodine solution!  Finally the WHO had to warn people that ingesting the latter is actually dangerous for your health!  Continue reading “Background: The Japanese Will Come Back, With Some Questions.”

Trade Notes: Play Short China Like Hugh Hendry?

A short view of China is not a new thing for me, but I’ve always been cautious about getting into that particular trade because of the surprises it can spring.  As Clusterstock mentions:

actually shorting China has never been a straightforward proposition. For one thing, due to the bubbly nature of the market, you can get your clock-cleaned really fast, even if you’re correct in the medium term. So you have to make related bets. Continue reading “Trade Notes: Play Short China Like Hugh Hendry?”

Background: John Taylor of FX Concepts and some interesting insights

With Credit to Zero Hedge for publishing John Taylor’s most recent missive (they show up every Thursday).  John Taylor is CEO of the hedge fund shop FX Concepts.

John Taylor, FX Concepts CEO

It’s based out of unfashionable premises near Madison Square Gardens in NYC, the office vibe more that of an engineering company than a hedge fund.  Everyone there, from the secretary upwards to John Taylor himself, is extremely down to earth.  Extremely jarring to find in NYC.  I like the shop and I like the guy.  The analysis can be a bit dense, but worth wading through.  More on what I personally think of this later… Continue reading “Background: John Taylor of FX Concepts and some interesting insights”