Trade Notes: Is Philippe Jabre Right About European Banks?

Philippe Jabre

Philippe Jabre is turning bullish US equities and bearish (a change of sentiment from last year) European banks.  Either way, he’s being pretty relaxed about allocation as:

There’s enough time to allocate, the markets are not going to disappear, … We’re waiting for asset valuations to return to reflecting fundamentals, and to stop being so correlated.  A lot of European banks have now recovered to book or normalized valuations as uncertainties over the effects of the stress tests and now Basel, have softened.  But loan growth is falling, which will limit earnings growth, and if bank shares are going to trade at above book value, there has to be growth. Continue reading “Trade Notes: Is Philippe Jabre Right About European Banks?”

Background [Felix Salmon]: Should we Listen to El Erian?

I’ve been watching a bit of a backlash against PIMCO, Bill Gross, and El-Erian of late.  It may be partly because their house view of “The New Normal”  so goes against the books of so many other people.  Not to mention the whistling past the graveyard antics of the major developed world policy-makers.  I actually hew more to the Pimco view, even discounting the fact that they (quite obviously) are also talking their own book.  Continue reading “Background [Felix Salmon]: Should we Listen to El Erian?”

Background: John Taylor of FX Concepts and some interesting insights

With Credit to Zero Hedge for publishing John Taylor’s most recent missive (they show up every Thursday).  John Taylor is CEO of the hedge fund shop FX Concepts.

John Taylor, FX Concepts CEO

It’s based out of unfashionable premises near Madison Square Gardens in NYC, the office vibe more that of an engineering company than a hedge fund.  Everyone there, from the secretary upwards to John Taylor himself, is extremely down to earth.  Extremely jarring to find in NYC.  I like the shop and I like the guy.  The analysis can be a bit dense, but worth wading through.  More on what I personally think of this later… Continue reading “Background: John Taylor of FX Concepts and some interesting insights”

Background: Hugh Hendry and Eclectica

Looks like Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management is in the news again.  I like the guy, used to be invested in the Eclectica Europe Fund when it still was Odey Eclectica (which split from the Odey group around 2006, I think).  As the story suggests, he does tend to get a lot up people’s noses, and seems to enjoy doing it.  I guess he irritates people off most because his scathing view is so often right.  His funds haven’t grown much (still around USD 450 mark I think) but he tends to have a loyal following of investors.  My favorite Hugh Hendry story was one of his famous appearances on CNBC.  Continue reading “Background: Hugh Hendry and Eclectica”