Trade Notes: Milk Most Likely to go the way of Onions in India

Manmohan Singh, current prime minister of India.
Image via Wikipedia

I’d mentioned as long ago as March that milk prices are likely to spike higher.  The Economic Times delivered to my hotel room in Kolkata suggests this is coming true

After vegetables, now milk will also pinch consumers, as Gujarat‘s largest milk producer, Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) marketing dairy products under the brand ‘Amul‘ on Tuesday announced a pan-India hike in milk prices by Rs 2 per litre. Continue reading “Trade Notes: Milk Most Likely to go the way of Onions in India”

Trade Notes: Play Short China Like Hugh Hendry?

A short view of China is not a new thing for me, but I’ve always been cautious about getting into that particular trade because of the surprises it can spring.  As Clusterstock mentions:

actually shorting China has never been a straightforward proposition. For one thing, due to the bubbly nature of the market, you can get your clock-cleaned really fast, even if you’re correct in the medium term. So you have to make related bets. Continue reading “Trade Notes: Play Short China Like Hugh Hendry?”

Trade Notes: Long Cocoa, potential long Nestle-Unilever

India’s growing appetite for the white stuff should lead to increased demand that may not be readily met, especially considering the other demands on India’s already sparse available agricultural land.  Now it seems there may be a burgeoning shortage of Cocoa as well. Continue reading “Trade Notes: Long Cocoa, potential long Nestle-Unilever”

Trade Notes: Got Milk?

Kind of weird corollary to India growing is that there is increasing milk demand in India.

The WPI in India has a 5% weight on milk, and that is having an effect because there was a 13.4% YoY inflation in milk prices in December ’09.  This is coming from a demand supply mismatch as there is an increasing uptake on processed milk products (most notably Reliance’s “Life”, Nestle’s “Pro-heart”, and Amul’s “Taaza”). Continue reading “Trade Notes: Got Milk?”