Trade Notes: Stay on With Long Gold Like Soros and Paulson?

Image by World Economic Forum via Flickr

George Soros, notwithstanding his worry that Gold may be the ultimate bubble has stayed on his long Gold position.  He warns that

Gold is the only actual bull market currently. It just made a new high yesterday. In the present circumstances that may continue…

Page 19901 and the Weird and Wonderful World of Swap Pricing

The FT had a great story today about an obscure corner of international Finance:  how the official “market” price of dollar swaps are posted on Reuters screens (relayed by ICAP on Bloomberg) on page 19901 where prices:

are used as a reference when banks settle options on swaps and underwrite corporate bonds …They are also used to decide what rate of interest will be paid to investors holding structured instruments and for valuing asset portfolios. 19901 is also treated as a benchmark in official derivatives documents created by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, an industry body.  Until 2002 the page was organised by Telerate, a data group, which posted prices using information supplied by Tullett Prebon, an interdealer broker. When Telerate went bust, Reuters acquired the service and Icap, the world’s largest interdealer broker, supplied swap prices.

Trade Notes: Soros doubling Gold bet?

Soros Doubling Gold Bet? Just saw this story on Bloomberg.  Interesting.  He’s doubled his bet on SPDR Gold Trust, even though he thinks it’s on a bubble and is likely to burst.  But he wants to ride that bubble a bit longer.  GS also seems to be signaling the same thing.  He’s in company with Tudor and Paulson.

Trade Notes: Could you short China?

In a sense, that’s a bit like shorting Goldman.  You could do that, but they both are so non-transparent, with so many idiosyncratic factors at play, that you’re better off leaving it alone.  Could you long China?  Sure, why not?  Everyone else is doing it.