Trade Notes: Stay Long Russia or Edge Towards the Door?

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Around 2007, Tim Rogers —  Valartis’ MC Russian Market Fund PM — said something very interesting about prospects in Russia.  He thought the days of making a killing just by picking under-appreciated Russian companies (i.e., pretty much any Russian company) were pretty much gone after the third level of privatizations.

Henceforth, the managers would have to make money the hard way:  by really working on picking the few remaining gems.  He’s no longer at Valartis, but it would be interesting to see how he would manage now.

Background: Whatever Happened to Tim Rogers?

Geneva at Night

Tim Rogers used to manage the MC Russian Market Fund for Valartis out of Geneva.  I first met him in 2005-6, invested in his fund(s) soon afterward and love the guy as a good solid manager who — perhaps unsurprisingly for a Canadian — is also a very nice guy.  He came to fund management and Russia investment in a rather roundabout way.

In the early/mid 90’s his girlfriend (he tells this story to a lot of investors, so I’m not breaching any confidences) wanted to travel overland from Hong Kong to Geneva.  A large part of this trip necessitated train travel through Yeltsin’s Russia.  The energy of the place then got him thinking about investing in the newly-privatized parts of Russian industry.

Trade Notes: Could you short China?

In a sense, that’s a bit like shorting Goldman.  You could do that, but they both are so non-transparent, with so many idiosyncratic factors at play, that you’re better off leaving it alone.  Could you long China?  Sure, why not?  Everyone else is doing it.